Pertumbuhan ekonomi pada paruh kedua tahun ini berisiko melambat, dan hal itu bakal mulai tampak di triwulan III. Pertumbuhan kinerja ekspor yang lambat, di bawah pertumbuhan impor menjadi salah satu faktor penyebab perlambatan. Konsumsi domestik dan investasi jadi andalan.
Deputi Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) Dody Budi Waluyo memperkirakan pertumbuhan ekonomi triwulan III akan lebih rendah dari pertumbuhan ekonomi triwulan II yang sebesar 5,27%. Tekanan pertumbuhan terjadi lantaran net eksporyang masih melambat.
“Proyeksi net export melambat. Kenaikan impor meski sudah turun tapi masih di atas kenaikan ekspor,” kata dia kepada Katadata.co.id, Jumat (28/9). Net ekspor juga tercatat turun pada triwulan II lalu. Ketika itu, faktor penyebabnya, impor yang tumbuh tinggi.
Menurut dia, motor penggerak pertumbuhan masih dari sisi konsumsi domestik dan investasi. Secara khusus, pertumbuhan investasi sejalan dengan tingginya kegiatan usaha, baik dari pemerintah maupun swasta.
Di sisi lain, Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian Darmin Nasution tak memungkiri faktor kenaikan suku bunga acuan bakal memengaruhi kegiatan ekonomi di dalam negeri. Sebab, kenaikan suku bunga acuan bakal membuat bunga perbankan lebih tinggi. “Apakah (kenaikan bunga acuan) akan memengaruhi ekonomi? Ada juga pengaruhnya,” kata dia.
Namun, Darmin menyatakan pemerintah telah menyiapkan beberapa kebijakan, di antaranya insentif pajak, buat menjaga pertumbuhan investasi bisnis. Saat ini, pemerintah tengah mengkaji ulang insentif libur pajak (tax holiday) dan mini tax holiday.
Direktur Pelayanan Fasilitas BKPM Endang Supriyadi sempat mengatakan adanya rencana perluasan sektor yang bisa mendapatkan tax holiday, dari saat ini terbatas pada 17 industri pionir. “Rencananya (akan diperluas) ke semua sektor, termasuk jasa yang tentunya memiliki aset yang besar yang memenuhi kriteria tertentu,” kata dia, beberapa waktu lalu.
Namun, Direktur Riset Center of Reform on Economics (Core) Indonesia Pieter Abdullah Redjalam melihat pertumbuhan investasi tetap berisiko melambat. Penyebab utamanya, pelaksanaan sistem perizinan terintegrasi secara elektronik atau Online Single Submission (OSS) yang tidak lancar.
Menurut dia, perizinan bisnis yang terhambat berdampak lanjut terhadap investasi. “Investasi yang melambat berdampak negatif terhadap pertumbuhan,” kata dia.
Sumber: Katadata.
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